Torch Litepaper
WebsiteX (Twitter)
  • Abstract
  • Introduction
    • Problem statement
  • Solution limitations
  • Vision & Objectives
  • How it works
  • Continuous market
  • Forecasting model
  • Probability map
  • Public goods
  • Betting
  • No exits
  • Prediction resolution
  • Hitting the range
  • Payout system
  • Payout formula
  • Reserve management
  • System mechanics
    • Key parameters
    • Lead time quality
    • Local confidence
    • Boldness quality
    • Sharpness quality
    • Bonus share
Powered by GitBook
On this page
  1. System mechanics

Lead time quality

PreviousKey parametersNextLocal confidence

Last updated 1 month ago

Bets are only accepted for lead times from 1 to 1000 hours. The weight is a measure from 0 to 1 based on the W(t)=aā‹…tšž… formula, with initial parameters set to a=17.78, b=0.25:

Sample values:

Period
Lead Time (h)
Quality

1 hour

1

17.8

4 hours

4

25.1

1 day

24

39.4

3 days

72

51.8

1 week

168

64.0

2 weeks

336

76.1

3 weeks

504

84.2

1 month

720

92.1