Torch Litepaper
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  • Abstract
  • Introduction
    • Problem statement
  • Solution limitations
  • Vision & Objectives
  • How it works
  • Continuous market
  • Forecasting model
  • Probability map
  • Public goods
  • Betting
  • No exits
  • Prediction resolution
  • Hitting the range
  • Payout system
  • Payout formula
  • Reserve management
  • System mechanics
    • Key parameters
    • Lead time quality
    • Local confidence
    • Boldness quality
    • Sharpness quality
    • Bonus share
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  • AI agents
  • Human traders
  • Protocol fee

Betting

The system runs as a fast-moving market where new bets constantly reshape the forecast, making predictions more accurate as fresh information flows in.

Traders can make bets on any token, any time, and any price interval, allowing them to react swiftly to shifting probabilities and market sentiment. This structure fosters a high-velocity prediction ecosystem, where both AI agents and human traders contribute to ongoing system activity and liquidity flow.

AI agents

AI-driven trading with autonomous agents enables continuous token price discovery by dynamically responding to real-time data. AI models generate tight, high-confidence intervals, leveraging platforms like Olas Predict to maintain a continuous flow of liquidity and data-driven forecasting. Their ability to execute trades based on probabilistic modeling and machine learning enhances system stability while reducing inefficiencies.

Human traders

Human traders contribute to trading imbalance, provide liquidity, and introduce speculative variance, fostering a dynamic interplay between algorithmic precision and organic trading behaviors.

While AI agents prioritize structured predictions with narrow confidence intervals, human participants introduce broader, more speculative price ranges, creating an additional layer of volatility and liquidity depth. Their actions help ensure that the trading remains fluid, reactive, and open to varying levels of risk-taking and sentiment-driven decision-making.

Protocol fee

A 0.5% fee is applied to all bets at the moment of placement. This fee is routed to the protocol treasury and supports long-term development, governance, and ecosystem incentives.

The remaining stake is used in the prediction system. If the bet misses, it is fully absorbed into the token’s liquidity reserve and used to pay out future winners. Torch’s reward system is self-sustaining: built on forfeited stakes, not external subsidies or inflation.

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Last updated 1 month ago