Torch Litepaper
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  • Abstract
  • Introduction
    • Problem statement
  • Solution limitations
  • Vision & Objectives
  • How it works
  • Continuous market
  • Forecasting model
  • Probability map
  • Public goods
  • Betting
  • No exits
  • Prediction resolution
  • Hitting the range
  • Payout system
  • Payout formula
  • Reserve management
  • System mechanics
    • Key parameters
    • Lead time quality
    • Local confidence
    • Boldness quality
    • Sharpness quality
    • Bonus share
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  1. System mechanics

Bonus share

Bonus Share in Reserve Bonus calculation weights each winner’s share based on their prediction quality and how recently their bet was resolved. Each bet’s bonus share is weighted by its prediction quality and discounted over time using an exponential decay function:

BonusShare(i)=qi∑jqj⋅e−λ(ti−tj)\text{BonusShare}(i) = \frac{q_i}{\sum_j q_j \cdot e^{-\lambda (t_i - t_j)}}BonusShare(i)=∑j​qj​⋅e−λ(ti​−tj​)qi​​

Where:

  • qᵢ is the prediction quality of the current winning bet

  • tᵢ is the current time

  • qⱼ, tⱼ are the quality and timestamp of previous winning bets

  • λ is the decay rate, controlling how quickly past contributions fade

PreviousSharpness quality

Last updated 1 month ago