Probability map

The primary utility of the probability map is to calculate boldness of the bets when they are placed. A prediction that diverges from the consensus forecast is considered bolder, especially if it lands in a low-confidence or low-liquidity region of the price-time map.

Torch applies bet decay weighting, which gradually reduces the influence of older or outdated predictions. As time progresses, stale bets lose relevance, and the map shifts to reflect the most recent inputs.

The probability map ensures that Torch remains responsive to new information, while bold, recent, and high-quality predictions carry greater impact, both in shaping the forecast and earning rewards.